The global oil market’s supply buffer has shrunk significantly after more than 1 billion barrels were withdrawn from commercial inventories to cushion disruptions caused by the Middle East crisis, leaving the market increasingly vulnerable to further supply shocks.
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser disclosed this at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London this week, warning that much of the oil remaining in storage is not readily available to the global market.
The drawdown comes as governments and energy companies increasingly rely on stored oil to offset supply disruptions caused by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the Group of Seven nations and their partners have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves.
Global oil buffer shrinks sharply
Governments and energy companies have increasingly turned to oil stockpiles to offset supply shortages caused by disruptions linked to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The withdrawals have reduced the volume of oil available as a buffer against additional disruptions, while much of the remaining inventory cannot easily be brought to market.
- “Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available, so the system is already straining,” Nasser said.
- According to the Aramco CEO, more than 1 billion barrels of oil have already been released, mainly from onshore commercial inventories, since the beginning of the current Middle East crisis.
Nasser described those inventories as one of the last major tools available to the global market to compensate for large-scale supply disruptions, raising concerns about the market’s ability to absorb another major shock.
Emergency stocks offer limited relief
Global oil demand currently stands at about 102 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency, highlighting the scale of consumption relative to the emergency stocks available to governments.
Against that level of demand, the planned release of up to 100 million barrels by the G7 and its partners represents less than one day of global oil consumption, although the stocks are expected to be released gradually and targeted at areas facing the greatest shortages.
Nasser said reaching an agreement on the 100 million-barrel release was difficult because available inventories are already under significant pressure.
- “It took a lot of negotiations, but it is 100 million,” Nasser said of the IEA decision. “Inventories are reaching a stress level. Only 10% or less is available, that’s why they struggle with 100 million barrels.”
- In March, Nairametrics reported that the International Energy Agency announced plans for an emergency release of about 400 million barrels of oil, the largest coordinated stock drawdown in the agency’s roughly 50-year history.
The limited size of the latest intervention underscores how much smaller the global supply cushion has become following earlier withdrawals.
Refined product recovery lags crude
The shrinking global oil supply buffer comes even as crude flows from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered close to pre-war levels.
- Middle East crude exports have returned to about 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to roughly 98% of volumes recorded before the conflict, but the recovery has been considerably weaker for refined petroleum products.
- Shipments of products such as diesel and gasoline stand at about 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to only 58% of their pre-war volumes.
- Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel during the crisis, compared with levels of around $72 per barrel before the war began.
- According to the United Nations Development Programme’s September 2026 policy brief, From Shock to Resilience: Protecting Development, global fossil-fuel subsidies could exceed $1 trillion this year if governments continue spending heavily to cushion households and businesses from the energy shock.
The combination of depleted inventories, weaker refined-product flows and elevated oil prices means another major disruption could leave the global market with significantly less capacity to absorb the shock.
